How the Timing of Annual COVID-19 Vaccination of Nursing Home Residents and Staff Affects Its Value.
Sarah M Bartsch, Colleen Weatherwax, Michael R Wasserman and 14 others
PMID 38432644WHAT IT FOUND
Annual vaccination campaigns in a nursing home model averted the most cases when started at least two months before the winter peak.
September or October start dates were most robust. Waiting for first cases lost prevention opportunities.
Key findings
01The model found annual vaccination campaigns starting at least two months before a December peak averted 102-105 cases when started between July and October.
02Starting in November rather than October or earlier produced a 37.5% relative increase in total cases.
03September-October campaigns were robust across scenarios and averted the greatest number of cases when vaccine efficacy waned.
STILL TO COME
How it was doneWhat they foundWhat it means for RNs
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What it does not show
This is a computer simulation, not a trial in real nursing home patients, so it cannot prove what vaccination timing would do in a specific facility. It modeled a typical nursing home with 100 residents and typical vaccine uptake, so smaller, larger, or differently staffed homes may behave differently. Key inputs came from winter 2022-23 and assumed Omicron-like conditions, so new variants, different community risk, or different immunity could change the result. The model did not include all testing costs or misdiagnosis of nonspecific symptoms, which could increase vaccination's value. Residents' higher age and underlying conditions may mean the model underestimates vaccination's value.
Declared interests
The supplied text lists NIH extramural and non-U.S. government research support. It does not report author conflicts or a sponsor role in design, writing, or analysis.
The easy way to misread this
Do not read this as real-world proof that September or October vaccination always prevents outbreaks. It is an agent-based model with assumed parameters. In some late-peak, low pre-peak-risk scenarios, vaccinating too early in July or August increased cases and costs.