Race/Ethnicity-Resolved Time Trends in United States ASD Prevalence Estimates from IDEA and ADDM.
Cynthia Nevison, Walter Zahorodny
PMID 31435818WHAT IT FOUND
Black and Hispanic children’s autism identification has caught up to or exceeded white children’s in many states, driven by increased diagnosis rather than new biological causes.
White prevalence plateaued mid-2000s but resumed rising after 2007. Clinicians should expect earlier and more frequent identification across all racial groups.
Key findings
01In the majority of states, autism prevalence among black children caught up to and then exceeded prevalence among white children by birth year 2008.
02Hispanic children’s autism prevalence caught up to white children’s by birth year 2013 and grew fastest of the three groups nationwide starting around birth year 2007.
03White children’s autism prevalence plateaued between birth years 2004 and 2007 but resumed increasing after 2007, reaching 0.67% by birth year 2013.
STILL TO COME
How it was doneWhat they foundWhat it means for PTsWhat it means for OTsWhat it means for SLPs
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What it does not show
IDEA data rely on special education classifications, which vary by state and may not reflect clinical diagnoses. ADDM data are limited to 8 year-olds and only cover birth years up to 2006, so they do not reflect recent trends. The study could not separate the effects of race from socioeconomic status, which are often linked. Changes in IDEA reporting formats in 2012 may have influenced the observed trends, though the authors argue this is unlikely. The study did not examine gender differences because the data were not resolved by both race and gender simultaneously.
Declared interests
No conflicts of interest or funding sources are declared in the provided text.
The easy way to misread this
Do not interpret the rising prevalence in Black and Hispanic children as evidence of a new biological cause of autism in these groups. The paper suggests this trend largely reflects historical underdiagnosis and improved access to services, meaning these children are now being identified at rates similar to or higher than White children.