National and State Estimates of Adults with Autism Spectrum Disorder.
Patricia M Dietz, Charles E Rose, Dedria McArthur and 1 others
PMID 32390121WHAT IT FOUND
2.21% of U.S. adults aged 18-84, or 1 in 45, were estimated to be living with autism in 2017.
State estimates ranged 1.97% to 2.42%. This is planning data, not treatment evidence.
Key findings
01The model estimated 2.21% of U.S. adults aged 18-84, or 1 in 45, were living with ASD in 2017.
02State adult ASD prevalence estimates ranged from 1.97% to 2.42%, with no obvious geographic pattern.
03A sensitivity analysis using child ages 6-17 instead of 3-17 gave a national estimate of 2.38% compared with 2.21%.
STILL TO COME
How it was doneWhat they foundWhat it means for SLPs
Read the rest of this summary
You get three full summaries a month, free, and we do not ask for a card. Search, the TL;DRs and your library stay unlimited either way.
What it does not show
No adults were directly assessed; the model starts from parent-reported child diagnoses for ages 3-17 and projects forward. Parent report can miss undiagnosed children and may falsely include suspected cases, so the child input can be wrong in either direction. The model assumed the same survival ratio across states and ages, but most mortality studies followed adults only to middle age. State estimates are partially pooled toward the national average, so low-data states may look closer to the average than they are. There is no validated adult ASD diagnostic test, so empirical adult prevalence remains unavailable. The estimates cover ages 18-84 only, because general population mortality data were available only to age 84.
The easy way to misread this
Do not read the 2.21% estimate as a directly measured count of adults with autism. It is modeled from parent-reported child diagnoses and survival assumptions, so it cannot be used to diagnose or plan care for an individual patient.