Estimating the Incidence and Prevalence of Dysphagia in New Zealand.

The study used existing literature rates and population projections rather than direct patient data, so the estimates depend on those sources. Demographic breakdowns were available only for part of the projected cases, so age, sex and ethnicity patterns are not complete for all dysphagia cases. The model assumed dysphagia begins at the same time as underlying conditions such as dementia or Parkinson's disease, which the authors say is unlikely to be true. The model assumed condition rates stay constant to 2073 and did not account for future healthcare improvements or medical innovations. The authors state confidence in incidence estimates is higher than in prevalence estimates because dysphagia onset timing is uncertain. The paper did not compare paediatric and adult dysphagia in detail.

The funding declaration names the University of Canterbury. No other conflicts of interest are reported in the supplied text.

Do not treat these projections as observed rates or as evidence that dysphagia is already rising in a particular clinic. They are modelled estimates with wide bounds and assumptions about constant condition rates and onset.