Effects of Vocational Re-training on Employment Outcomes Among Persons with Disabilities in Germany: A Quasi-Experiment.

The study did not randomise people to training or no training. It compared completers with people who started but did not complete training, so unmeasured differences such as motivation or health severity could affect the results. Many dropouts left for medical reasons. A sensitivity analysis that excluded these dropouts reduced the estimated effects slightly, but the control group may still differ from graduates. 961 records were excluded because income or employment data were missing or interrupted. Missing data was associated with pension uptake, so the final sample may not include all people with poor outcomes. Income above a contribution ceiling was recorded as a median value rather than the true value, which may have lowered estimated income gains. The study used German pension insurance administrative data and specific re-training programmes, so the results may not apply to other countries or to clinical therapy settings. The analysis could not measure motivation or other soft factors that influence employment outcomes.

Do not read this as proof that vocational re-training causes better employment for every person with a disability. The study compared people who completed training with people who started but did not complete it, not with a randomly assigned group, and many records were excluded because income or employment data were missing.