PTCohortProsthetics and orthotics international2021

Development of a physical mobility prediction model to guide prosthetic rehabilitation.

Chelsey B Anderson, Shane R Wurdeman, Matthew J Miller and 2 others

PMID 33840752

WHAT IT FOUND

Predictions built from similar past patients gave accurate self-reported mobility trajectories for people after lower-limb amputation over 6 months.

They gave narrower expected ranges than whole-population estimates, but not yet tested in prospective care.

Key findings

01The model matched a new patient to historical patients using age, sex, amputation level, time since amputation and baseline PLUS-M score.

02The tuned model used 45 similar patients. On average, predicted PLUS-M scores were 0.01 standard deviations from observed scores, 49.8% of observed scores fell inside the 50% predicted range, and that range was 8.4 PLUS-M points wide.

03The predicted scores matched observed scores in both the training records and the test records.

STILL TO COME

How it was doneWhat they foundWhat it means for PTs

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What it does not show

The data came from a private prosthetics practice and only included records with PLUS-M scores, so people without prosthetic care or without PLUS-M scores are not represented. Records were excluded if they did not contain 2 or more PLUS-M time points or missing covariates, which may remove patients with less complete follow-up. Some subgroups were limited, including partial foot amputation, bilateral amputation, certain etiologies and people early after amputation, so predictions may underestimate extremely poor outcomes. The model was developed and tested only on old records, not on new patients, and it was not compared with predictions from experienced prosthetists. The outcome is self-reported PLUS-M mobility, which is prone to reporter bias and may not match performance-based function. PLUS-M observations were treated as independent, and timing of collection depended on clinic patterns, which may limit generalizability. No alternative prediction methods were available for comparison, so the improvement over other prediction methods is not established.

Declared interests

No funding or conflict-of-interest declaration is supplied. The data were provided by Hanger Clinics, a private prosthetics practice.

The easy way to misread this

Do not treat this model as a validated clinical decision tool. It predicted self-reported PLUS-M mobility in old records, but it was not compared with experienced prosthetist estimates and was not tested prospectively in patients.

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