Development of a Nomogram-Based Prediction Model for Postoperative Delirium in Patients After Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Retrospective Cohort Study.
Hongru Zhang, Genya Shi, Tomoko Majima and 2 others
PMID 41709081WHAT IT FOUND
After hip replacement, older age, higher fall risk, indwelling catheter and lower total protein were linked to postoperative delirium; a visual model could help nurses estimate individual risk.
Key findings
01Postoperative delirium occurred in 55 of 457 patients after total hip arthroplasty, a prevalence of 12.04%.
02In 457 patients, independent associations with postoperative delirium were age OR 1.057 (95% CI 1.011-1.106), fall risk OR 1.222 (1.073-1.393), catheterisation OR 2.360 (1.011-5.507), and total protein OR 0.897 (0.828-0.991).
03The nomogram showed good discrimination with AUC 0.867 (95% CI 0.821-0.914) and net benefit across threshold probabilities 0% to 45%.
STILL TO COME
How it was doneWhat they foundWhat it means for RNs
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What it does not show
The study was retrospective and used routine records, so selection and information bias are possible and the model cannot show that any factor causes delirium. It came from one hospital, and the model was only internally validated, so its accuracy in other units or patient groups is unproven. Incomplete records were excluded, and blinding of predictor assessment to outcome was not applicable because of the retrospective design. Whether catheterisation was clinically necessary was not recorded in detail, so the catheter association may reflect patient severity or practice rather than a modifiable nursing factor. The sample was mostly older adults, so findings may not apply to younger patients despite age 18 or older inclusion.
Declared interests
Funded by Dalian Municipal Health Commission and China Scholarship Council; funders had no role in design, collection, analysis, publication or manuscript preparation. Authors declared no conflicts of interest.
The easy way to misread this
Do not treat the nomogram as a validated clinical tool or assume the four factors cause delirium. It was developed from one hospital's retrospective records, had no external validation, and cannot establish causation.