Development and validation of dynamic nomogram of frailty risk for older patients hospitalized with heart failure.
Qian Li, Yanping Chen, Dechun Qin and 7 others
PMID 37128487WHAT IT FOUND
An online calculator using 11 patient factors accurately predicted frailty risk in hospitalized older adults with heart failure.
It flagged half the patients as frail, with strong accuracy in both training and validation groups.
Key findings
01The prediction model accurately identified frailty in the validation group, with an area under the curve of 0.920, 86.8% specificity, and 84.4% sensitivity.
02Multimorbidity was the strongest predictor of frailty, increasing the odds by 4.42 times.
03The model used 11 factors including drinking, grip strength, NYHA class, multimorbidity, hospitalization history, ADL, IADL, nutrition, sleep, fall risk, and left atrial diameter.
STILL TO COME
How it was doneWhat they foundWhat it means for RNs
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What it does not show
The study was conducted in a single hospital in China, so the results may not apply to other populations or settings. The model was validated only internally, meaning it has not been tested on patients from different hospitals or countries. The statistical method used to select predictors does not fully resolve issues with overlapping variables.
Declared interests
The authors declared no conflicts of interest. The study was funded by the Nursing Research Fund of Weifang Medical University.
The easy way to misread this
Do not assume this calculator works for patients outside this specific hospital setting or demographic. The model was built and tested only on patients from one hospital in China, and it has not been validated externally.