Current and Projected Future Supply and Demand for Physical Therapists From 2022 to 2037: A New Approach Using Microsimulation.
Patrick Zarek, Clark Ruttinger, David Armstrong and 4 others
PMID 40037340WHAT IT FOUND
The US physical therapy workforce faces a projected 5.2% shortage in 2022, worsening to 8.2% by 2027 before easing to 3.3% by 2037.
Rural areas and the South and West regions are most affected. Increasing graduates or delaying retirement is needed to close the gap.
Key findings
01The 2022 national shortage is estimated at 12,070 FTE physical therapists, representing a 5.2% gap between supply and demand.
02The shortage is projected to worsen to 8.2% by 2027 before improving to 3.3% by 2037 under baseline assumptions.
03Significant geographic imbalances exist, with the South lacking 16,620 FTEs and the West lacking 10,400 FTEs relative to demand in 2022.
STILL TO COME
How it was doneWhat they foundWhat it means for PTs
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What it does not show
The survey sample consisted of APTA members, which may not fully represent the broader workforce. Demand modeling excluded chronic pain and specific conditions like fibromyalgia due to data gaps, potentially underestimating need. Hospital demand was estimated using musculoskeletal admissions as a proxy, which may not capture all PT needs in acute care. State-level projections are less reliable due to unmodeled migration patterns and local market nuances. The model assumes constant staffing ratios and does not account for technological changes like AI or telerehabilitation that could alter productivity.
Declared interests
The American Physical Therapy Association (APTA) funded the survey and provided staff support for data collection and writing. APTA staff did not have approval over the findings, which were analyzed by independent researchers at GlobalData Plc and the University of Albany.
The easy way to misread this
Do not interpret the projected narrowing of the shortage by 2037 as a sign that the workforce will be adequate soon. The gap is expected to worsen significantly in the near term (peaking in 2027), and the 3.3% gap in 2037 still represents a national shortage of 9,120 FTEs.