Temporal analysis of mortality from preventable causes in the first 24 hours of life, 2000-2021.
Aline Beatriz Dos Santos Silva, Luciana Scarlazzari Costa, Paulo Germano de Frias and 2 others
PMID 38055593WHAT IT FOUND
In Pernambuco, Brazil, mortality rates in the first 24 hours of life ranged from 7.8 to 3.2 per 1,000 live births, and 11,110 of 14,462 deaths were from preventable causes.
Predictions for 2022 to 2026 suggest further decline.
Key findings
01During 2000 to 2021, 55,964 infant deaths were recorded in Pernambuco, and 14,462 occurred in the first 24 hours of life.
02Of the 14,462 deaths in the first 24 hours of life, 11,110 were classified as preventable.
03For 2022 to 2026, the model projected mortality rates in the first 24 hours of life of 3.3 to 2.4 per 1,000 live births and preventable rates of 2.3 to 1.8 per 1,000 live births.
STILL TO COME
How it was doneWhat they foundWhat it means for RNs
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What it does not show
The study used official death and birth records, which can be incomplete or underreported. It analysed population rates by quarter, not individual newborns or families, so it cannot show which specific care actions prevented or failed to prevent deaths. The 2022 to 2026 predictions are modelled forecasts, not observed outcomes, and assume past patterns continue. The forecast could be changed by policy, social, economic conditions, or pandemic effects.
Declared interests
The paper reports support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), grant #88882.387007/2019-01, and from Fundação de Amparo à Ciência e Tecnologia de Pernambuco through Programa de Pesquisa Para o SUS: Gestão Compartilhada em Saúde (PPSUS/PE-2020).
The easy way to misread this
Do not read the predicted 2022 to 2026 decline as proof that care practices reduced deaths. This is a modelled forecast from past records, not a tested intervention.