Projecting Long-Term Care Costs for Home and Community-Based Services in China from 2005 to 2050.
Haiyu Jin, Yanfang Su, Yongjing Ping and 7 others
PMID 36502859WHAT IT FOUND
Home and community-based long-term care costs for older adults in China are projected to rise sharply, with faster growth for people needing help with three or more daily activities.
This is a cost projection, not evidence that therapy reduces spending.
Key findings
01Among Chinese adults age 65 years or older, total home and community-based long-term care costs increased from 0.3% of GDP in 2005 to 0.5% of GDP in 2018.
02The model projected total home and community-based long-term care costs to increase from 0.7% of GDP to 6.4% over the next 30 years.
03Costs for older adults needing help with 3 or more activities of daily living were projected to rise from 0.5% of GDP to 4.3% over 2020 to 2050, compared with 0.2% to 2.0% for those needing help with 1 to 2 activities.
STILL TO COME
How it was doneWhat they foundWhat it means for OTs
Read the rest of this summary
You get three full summaries a month, free, and we do not ask for a card. Search, the TL;DRs and your library stay unlimited either way.
What it does not show
The projection assumes disability transition probabilities remain constant over time. Costs were annualised from one week of self-reported care spending and caregiver hours, so people whose needs varied during the year may be misestimated. The analysis did not include institutional long-term care, although only less than 1% of Chinese older adults lived in residential care facilities in 2020. Dementia rates were held at the 2018 level, so future dementia-related costs could be higher. Future costs depend on assumptions about mortality, migration, income, wages, urbanisation, marriage, co-residence, and GDP; sensitivity analyses showed mortality assumptions could change projected total costs.
Declared interests
The authors declared no conflicts of interest. The article is listed as research support from NIH and non-U.S. government sources.
The easy way to misread this
Do not read the projected cost rise as proof that a home care programme or therapy will lower spending. The study models future costs from survey data and assumptions, not an intervention effect.