RNCohortNursing in critical care2025

Predictive model for the risk of paediatric intensive care utilization in children with medical complexity: A longitudinal retrospective cohort study.

Bibiana Pérez-Ardanaz, Laura Gutiérrez-Rodríguez, Alberto José Gómez-González and 3 others

PMID 39380294

WHAT IT FOUND

47.2% of children with medical complexity were admitted to intensive care over six years.

Malignancy, surgery, transplant, home devices, comorbidities and more health contacts raised risk. Younger age and higher maternal education lowered it.

Key findings

01Of 248 children in the cohort, 117 (47.2%) were admitted to the PICU during follow-up.

02The factors examined collectively had a predictive capacity of 21.3% for PICU admission.

03Surgical intervention, any medical device and transplant had adjusted hazard ratios of 1.58, 1.81 and 3.74 for PICU admission.

STILL TO COME

How it was doneWhat they foundWhat it means for RNs

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What it does not show

The study was retrospective and based on electronic records from one reference hospital in Spain, so it cannot show that any factor caused PICU admission. The prediction model was only at derivation stage, had 21.3% predictive capacity, and was not externally validated. Some children exceeded the under-18 inclusion age during follow-up and were kept because they continued paediatric or transitional care. The cohort included only children who already had complex chronic conditions at the start, not children who developed them during follow-up. Small numbers in some condition categories and unmeasured factors, such as differences in clinical practice and resource availability, may have affected results. The authors could not separate long-term outcomes caused by the underlying disease, acute illness or intensive care complications.

Declared interests

The supplied text reports no specific grant for the research. Open access charge funding was from Universidad de Málaga/CBUA.

The easy way to misread this

Do not treat this as a validated prediction rule or assume the listed factors cause PICU admission. The model had only 21.3% predictive capacity, and the study was a retrospective cohort at one reference hospital without external validation.

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