Prediction learning in adults with autism and its molecular correlates.
Laurie-Anne Sapey-Triomphe, Joke Temmerman, Nicolaas A J Puts and 1 others
PMID 34615532WHAT IT FOUND
Autistic adults predicted tone-rotation associations as accurately as neurotypicals and updated them after reversals.
However, right inferior frontal gyrus glutamate was higher in autism and correlated with lower prediction accuracy. Intolerance of uncertainty did not predict performance.
Key findings
01Both groups learned and updated predictions: accuracy rose from 64% to 79% in autistic adults and 65% to 82% in neurotypicals after reversals, with no group difference.
02Glx levels in the right inferior frontal gyrus were higher in autistic adults than neurotypicals, and a higher Glx/GABA ratio there correlated with worse prediction accuracy in the autism group.
03Prediction accuracy did not correlate significantly with intolerance of uncertainty or social difficulty scores, but did correlate with sensory sensitivity.
STILL TO COME
How it was doneWhat they found
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What it does not show
Small sample size of 26 per group. Eleven autistic participants were taking medication that could affect neurotransmitter levels. The task explicitly told participants associations could change, reducing genuine surprise. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy measures concentrations across large brain regions and cannot distinguish cortical layers or receptor activity. Glutathione analysis was exploratory with limited consensus on fitting methods. Only two brain regions were scanned, omitting areas like the anterior cingulate cortex.
Declared interests
Funded by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions and Methusalem funding.
The easy way to misread this
Do not conclude that autistic adults have intact prediction learning in daily life. The task was simple, non-social, and participants were warned that associations would change. The study found no link between prediction accuracy and real-world intolerance of uncertainty.