Musculoskeletal Health and Work: Development and Internal-External Cross-Validation of a Model to Predict Risk of Work Absence and Presenteeism in People Seeking Primary Healthcare.
Lucinda Archer, George Peat, Kym I E Snell and 6 others
PMID 38963652WHAT IT FOUND
Models using self-reported history, pain, and job type accurately predicted 6-month work absence and presenteeism in adults with musculoskeletal disorders.
Prior absence was the strongest predictor of future absence, while comorbidities and long pain duration predicted poor work performance.
Key findings
01Having taken any work absence in the prior 6 months was the strongest predictor of any work absence over the next 6 months.
02Having comorbidities and a pain duration of more than 12 months at consultation were the strongest associations with poor work performance (presenteeism) at 6 months.
03The model predicting 6-month work absence showed good discrimination (C-statistic 0.76) but calibration varied across studies, with overestimation of risk in one cohort.
STILL TO COME
How it was doneWhat they foundWhat it means for PTsWhat it means for OTs
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What it does not show
The 12-month absence model was based on only 408 participants, failing sample size requirements and showing poor calibration, so it is not ready for clinical use. Predictors were self-reported and collected 1-4 weeks after the consultation, not at the point of care, which may affect accuracy in real-time clinical settings. The study populations were disproportionately high in socioeconomic status, so the models may not perform as well in lower socioeconomic groups. Individual predictions for presenteeism varied substantially from observed scores, meaning the model is better for group risk estimation than precise individual forecasting.
Declared interests
Funded by the NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, the Medical Research Council, Versus Arthritis, and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. No other conflicts of interest are reported.
The easy way to misread this
Do not use the 12-month absence prediction model in practice. The authors state it was underpowered, miscalibrated, and requires further validation, so relying on it could misdirect clinical resources.
Summarised by AI from the full paper, without a clinician reviewing it. Check it against the source before it changes what you do. Read it on PubMed →