Identification and Characterisation of Trajectories of Sickness Absence Due to Musculoskeletal Pain: A 1-Year Population-based Study.
Tarjei Rysstad, Margreth Grotle, Lene Aasdahl and 2 others
PMID 36103063WHAT IT FOUND
Workers on sick leave for musculoskeletal pain follow one of six distinct return-to-work paths over a year.
Expectancy of returning to work and prior sick leave days were the strongest markers of persistent absence, while pain intensity and age were not.
Key findings
01Group-based trajectory modelling identified six distinct sickness absence patterns, ranging from fast decrease to persistent high absence, with the persistent high group comprising 18.2% of participants.
02Negative return-to-work expectancy was associated with higher odds of belonging to trajectories with considerably more sick leave days, specifically the slow decrease, moderate persisting, and high persisting groups.
03Age, education level, and pain intensity were not associated with any of the identified sickness absence trajectories.
STILL TO COME
How it was doneWhat they foundWhat it means for PTsWhat it means for OTs
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What it does not show
The trajectories identified need external validation in separate samples of workers with musculoskeletal disorders. Small sample sizes in some trajectory groups (e.g., u-shape, n=40) lead to uncertainty in the regression analysis and wide confidence intervals for some estimates. The return-to-work expectancy question included home duties, which may have reduced its specificity for work-related expectations. Findings may be restricted to countries with similar social insurance and sick leave benefit systems, such as other Nordic countries. Data were left-censored from the first assessment rather than the start of the current sick leave spell, affecting comparisons of prior absence days.
Declared interests
Funded by Norges Forskningsråd and OsloMet - Oslo Metropolitan University. No specific conflicts of interest were reported in the supplied text.
The easy way to misread this
Do not assume that pain intensity drives prolonged sickness absence. This study found no association between pain intensity and any of the six identified trajectories, suggesting that factors like return-to-work expectancy and prior sick leave history are more relevant for prognosis.