Autism Tsunami: the Impact of Rising Prevalence on the Societal Cost of Autism in the United States.
Mark Blaxill, Toby Rogers, Cynthia Nevison
PMID 34278527WHAT IT FOUND
U.S. autism costs are projected to rise enormously if prevalence keeps increasing.
The paper is retracted and reports no patient outcomes.
Key findings
01The Base Case model estimated total U.S. autism costs at $223 ± 48 billion in 2020 and $5.5 ± 1.2 trillion by 2060, accounting for inflation.
02In 2020, education, early intervention, and parental productivity made up 54% of costs; by 2060, adult non-medical services and individual productivity made up 63%.
03The Prevention scenario projected $3.7 ± 0.8 trillion by 2060, and the Low scenario projected $2.8 ± 0.6 trillion by 2060, accounting for inflation.
STILL TO COME
How it was doneWhat they found
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What it does not show
The paper is listed as a retracted publication. That makes its projections unreliable. It is an economic model, not a study of patients or therapists. It does not show what any treatment does. The projections use California service-case counts to represent the whole United States. They also depend on uncertain assumptions about future prevalence. The model uses uncertain multipliers to convert severe autism counts into total autism prevalence. The authors state prevalence projections are their largest uncertainty. No funding or conflict-of-interest declaration is provided in the supplied text.
The easy way to misread this
Do not read the large projected costs as evidence that therapy changes autism outcomes. This is a retracted economic model, not a treatment study.